Joe Biden and Iowa
The Iowa caucuses will take place on the third of February, and a true front runner has yet to emerge. The last time a Democrat lost Iowa, but won the nomination was Bill Clinton in 1992. Historically Iowa has been a good indicator as to who will win the democratic nomination. Winning in Iowa can help establish a candidate as the front runner in the race, and can help with fundraising for Super Tuesday. Going into Iowa, Biden appears to have a large advantage; no vice president in modern history has made it to the primary finals and lost. Biden was the vice president of a historically very popular president amongst democrats, he has polled well with minorities, and 3 out of the 4 people polling closest to him were forced to return to Washington directly before the caucuses began. Despite all of this, Biden is only maintaining a slight leed, polling at 23% versus Bernie Sanders’s 21%.
The soon to be 78 year old’s campaign has faced concerns about his son’s relationship with the Ukraine, his age, meager fundraising, his record on bussing, and his gaffes. So is there still a road to victory in the primary for Biden? Mr. Biden may not experience the same dedication from supporters as Mr. Sanders, but, as the primary slogs on, electability will continue to be Mr. Biden’s key argument. President Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania’s combined 46 electoral votes by a mere one hundred and ten thousand votes. It is also estimated by the Washington Post that around 1.5 million African Americans that voted for Obama, didn’t even go to the polls in 2016. Biden hopes to capture those Obama voters in the primaries, which will help establish him as the clear front runner, and prove that he is the party’s best chance at defeating the incumbent republican. Biden also hopes to utilise his home town of Scranton, Pennsylvania to win Pennsylvania in the primaries and prove to the Democratic voter that he can take back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to beat Trump in the general election. While losing Iowa still seems fairly likely for the former Vice President, Mr. Biden’s odds of winning the Democrat nomination still appear to be quite promising.
By: Ben Butcher
